Just like millions of Americans over the past week, I to have been following the unfolding events in Iran since their Presidential election. Millions of Iranians are disputing the results and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s reelection, claiming voter fraud and rigging. Largely, supporters of favored Mir Hussein Moussavi have been rallying behind him and protesting for a nullification of the election. Pro-Ahmadinejad supporters have been rallying too but their numbers are relatively small by comparison.
Thankfully though, violence has been low during these protests but this is about to change. On Friday, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, drew a line in the sand in this potentially dangerous situation:
“Flexing muscles on the streets after the election is not right,” he said, before tens of thousands of angry supporters at TehranUniversity. “It means challenging the elections and democracy. If they don’t stop, the consequences of the chaos would be their responsibility.” [via NY Times]
Essentially the Ayatollah put the ball back into Moussavi’s court and told him that he has to back down and accept defeat or else there will be big consequences. Moussavi must now decide on a few things himself that will have huge ramifications for the future of Iran. If he pursues his current strategy of election nullification, he risks a bloody crackdown and potentially arrest and even death. If he accepts defeat, millions of supporters could riot or back down and let their anger fester for another time.
Perhaps unbeknownst by him, Moussavi has unwittingly tapped into a pit of undirected seething anger shared by millions of Iranians. What if Moussavi, who seems a bit overwhelmed by all this, directs this anger toward the guardian council and the Ayatollah? What if he crafted a grand strategy, beyond the election nullification, to something bigger for Iran? Could he force a regime change?
While this may be a tantalizing outcome for the United States, it’s too early to tell because the success or failure of a regime change will ultimately depend on what side the Iranian military chooses. With the Ayatollah’s line in the sand, he and the guardian council put themselves in a bind that if they cracked down harshly on the protesters (mostly young people), they risk the alienation of the general Iranian population and potentially create questions of loyalty inside the military leadership. A similar dynamic happened with the British led Indian army right after the Jallianwala Bagh massacre in 1919 (the catalyst for the Indian independence movement).
The bottom line is that the guardian council and Khamenei must talk tough and hope that Moussavi backs down. If not, they must crackdown on the protestors and risk a potentially dangerous backlash by millions. If Moussavi doesn’t organize and come up with a grand strategy for the protestors to latch onto, he will blink. If he does, then the Khamenei and the guardian council better blink, and fast. Update: It looks like the crackdown has begun.